Monday, April 12, 2010

2010 Outlook: One Quarter in the Books

By Eric Jackson
RealMoney Contributor

4/12/2010 12:01 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Eric Jackson

With the first quarter in the books, it's always illuminating -- and sometimes a little humbling -- to review prior predictions. At the end of last year, I made some stock picks and macro predictions. Here's how they've panned out so far.

Universal Travel Group (UTA - commentary -Trade Now)

I just met with this company on my recent trip to China and wrote about it last week. I still like it moving forward, as it is going after the packaged-tour market in China, and the country's domestic tourism business -- let alone the international one -- is set to boom over the next decade. Since I wrote about the stock in late December, it is down 4.7% vs. the S&P's 6.8% gain.

China Sky One Medical (CSKI - commentary- Trade Now)

A provider of nutritional supplements, including ones for traditional Chinese medicine, CSKI has dropped 27% since my pick. I've learned that the company doesn't have any Chinese-language version of its website. To a large extent, it exists only for the US investor market. I would avoid it moving forward.

China Agritech (CAGC - commentary - Trade Now)

The stock has been on a tear since I picked it -- up 94% this quarter. I like the company and its Chinese organic fertilizer business. I recently met with the company's COO. The problem is valuation -- it's a bit frothy right now. I would wait before getting in.

Puda Coal (PUDA - commentary - Trade Now)

I'm still a big believer in this coking-coal company, which is gaining ownership of more and more coal mines in the Shanxi province of China. The stock is up 77% since my suggestion and just got upgraded last week. There are still good times ahead.

Fuqi International (FUQI - commentary -Trade Now) The stock had a high-profile stumble when it delayed filing its 10K. News last week suggested the company would file it soon, which breathed new life into the stock. Still, it's down 29% since my recommendation. Assuming it cleans up its books, the stock is in a great space as a middle-market Chinese jeweler.

So, some hits and misses in this group. However, if you had taken an equally weighted position in all five stocks, the portfolio would have returned 22%, or triple the return of the S&P 500 over that period.


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