Google's Search for a Second Act

My chat with @JeffMacke on $GOOG earnings tonight - pre-flash crash:

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The Power of Millennial Zuck

According to the Wall Street Journal, Facebook (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg called an audible on making the $1 billion acquisition of Instagram last week (which will actually be worth $1.3 billion if Facebook IPOs at a $100 billion valuation).

He didn’t involve his board at all in the negotiations until it was time to rubber-stamp it.  According to the Journal, on the morning of Sunday, April 8th, Zuckerberg first notified them that he would be buying the hot photo-sharing site.  They announced the deal the next day.

Read the full post on Forbes

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It's Official: Google Today Is Just Where Microsoft Was in 1999

Google (GOOG) looks a lot more vulnerable to the accusation that it’s become the new Microsoft (MSFT) today compared to even a year ago.

Several people have said that Google’s co-founders, Larry Pageand Sergey Brin, have sought to build their company so that it wouldn’t make the mistakes that Microsoft did in the 1990s.

Well, surprise, Google today seems a heck of a lot similar to where Microsoft was right in 1999 – the year after Google was founded.

Read the full post in Forbes

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Google's Paranoid Governance Structure Has Made It Less Innovative, Not More

Here's why the anti-shareholder governance structure of Google has led to a flat share price in the last 5 years and no "innovations" to show for it.

Read the Forbes post

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Mark Zuckerberg's Generation Y IPO

How Mark Zuckerberg's Gen Y status has shaped the company that Facebook is.

Read the full post on TheStreet

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Google's Big Problem They Don't Want You To Know About

The core business which accounts for 96% of Google's business is slowing.  But the management team doesn't want you to know that.

Read the full post in Forbes

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Stop Bitching About Apple's Board

Why do we constantly hear complaints about Apple's board when Google's goes whistling past the graveyard? Seen their 5 year stock returns?

Read the full Forbes post

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An "A" For Yesterday's Google Earnings Call

Props to Larry Page for taking past criticisms to heart. One big unanswered question.

Read the full Forbes Post.

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Is Larry Page the Answer to Google’s Problems?

After 3 months on the job, Larry Page has yet to make a speech to investors. That's not a good sign for Google's stock price.

Read the full post here on Forbes.

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All Quiet on the Google Front

By Eric Jackson RealMoney Contributor 6/2/2011 12:15 PM EDT Click here for more stories by Eric Jackson

We're now two months into the reign of Larry Page as the CEO of Google (GOOG -commentary - Trade Now) and, unless you count his canned comments at the start of the April earnings call, we've yet to hear him speak publicly about the company.

There hasn't even been a quick comment like, "I'm conducting a thorough assessment of all Google operations and will soon report on my strategy for the company." Nothing.

Instead it's been left to his lieutenants and his old boss to make the only public statements about what life is like under Larry. "It's invigorating," said Marissa Mayer a couple of weeks ago, comparing a day working at Google to a whiff of Irish Spring in your morning shower.

"Larry, of course, is brilliant," said Eric Schmidt earlier this week at the D conference in Los Angeles, in his first speech since taking the role of "Executive" Chairman (meaning, "I'm still working, I'm not just golfing, OK?"). Of course, Larry's brilliant. Why would anyone even think of questioning his brilliance?

Since brilliance is the only prerequisite for capable CEO leadership, perhaps we should nominate Stephen Hawking to take over from Carol Bartz at Yahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Trade Now). Or what about a brain surgeon as the next head of General Electric (GE - commentary - Trade Now)? That's the problem with business today: There's not enough brilliance.

Maybe Wall Street wouldn't have almost blown up two years ago if only we had had more brilliant people working there.

Being a leader is about more than brilliance. Look, it's important. I'd rather have a smart guy running a company than a dummy, but it's about inspiring others, execution, long-term planning and short-term firefighting. Larry Page is still a huge unknown quantity, and that uncertainty going to continue to hang over this company's stock.

I don't know if it will be on the next earnings call or at some investment banking conference, or maybe not until next year's D conference (this year's would have been the obvious one to attend and speak at ... and I'm sure he was invited), but eventually Larry Page will have to get up and speak out like every other CEO does.

When that day comes, buckle up for a stock drop. I continue to be convinced that the stock will sell off as investors better appreciate who is in charge now. "This is the guy?" will be a common reaction.

...

[*** This post is an excerpt of the full article, available by clicking here to go to RealMoney.com. Note: subscription required. ***]

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A Meandering Google

By Eric Jackson
RealMoney Contributor
5/9/2011 10:45 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Eric Jackson

Did you catch the new Google (GOOG -commentary - Trade Now) television commercials over the weekend? No, I don't mean the ads for a new Google TV service that's supposed to go up against Apple (AAPL - commentary - Trade Now) TV. I mean actual ads for Google during weekend sports telecasts.

I've seen a couple now. They always drive you back to a sign-up page to download the Google Chrome browser, but the ads are basically selling you on the total Google experience: checking your email through Gmail all day, uploading user-generated videos to YouTube and sharing your photos on Picassa.

This advertising didn't come as a total surprise to me, as I had heard on the last earnings call for Google (Larry Page's infamous first call as CEO) that they were raising the marketing spend for Chrome. However, I somehow expected that they would be spending this money online, in a targeted way, rather than a shotgun old-media ad-buying approach.

It leads you back to the question of just what Larry Page is doing as the CEO of Google. He's now about a month and a half into his tenure, and probably more like five months from the point at which he knew he would be taking over.

Here's what we know, based on various reports:

• He believes Facebook is the biggest threat to Google, but there's not much happening with Google and social networking. Remember "+1?" Wasn't that supposed to be the service that every Google employee would get all his or her friends and family to start to using and hope for a group bonus at the end of the year? Did +1 ever launch? Larry -- to my knowledge -- also doesn't have a Facebook page or Twitter handle.
• Page is willing to spend whatever it takes to get or keep talent at Google. Whether it's an extra few million in stock options to counter talent being lured away, or across-the-board 10% pay hikes for all employees, Larry is willing to pay up for the long-term good. That's partly why operating expenses were up 43% last quarter.
• Google is now advertising itself during major TV sports events. They want the same viewers who drink Miller Lite and order Papa John's Pizza (PZZA - commentary - Trade Now) to create a Gmail account and start videoing themselves for their 15 minutes of fame on YouTube. This would seem to be the opposite of the approach which they took to revolutionize the advertising business with their Google AdWords. Forget the targeted approach; go mass media and let's see how many fish we can catch.
• There's no real change in Google's strategy or, at least, there's no real articulation for where the company wants to go. We know Page is in a hurry to get somewhere, but we're not really sure where that is and how it differs from where Eric Schmidt was leading the company.
• Pet projects will apparently continue. Driverless cars, wind turbine farms in Oregon and future space missions are still, it seems, part of the broader Google strategy -- until we hear otherwise.

With these messages coming out in slow drips from the Googleplex, it is hard for investors to get excited.

...

[*** This post is an excerpt of the full article, available by clicking here to go to RealMoney.com. Note: subscription required. ***]

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Dear Larry: A Letter From Wall Street

By Eric Jackson, Senior Contributor04/27/11 - 08:00 AM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) --

Dear Larry:

What happened?

There was a time -- just before you IPO'ed in 2004 -- when we really thought Google(GOOG_) was a kooky company. You put that strange letter to shareholders in your S-1. You said you wouldn't pay attention to the short-term demands of Wall Street. You set up a dual-class share structure so that none of our activist hedge fund brothers could throw you out if you did a terrible job. You said you were going to be a different kind of company.

We don't like different. It's hard to figure out. It's random. Worst of all, it suggests your margins are going to suck.

Google CEO Larry Page

Luckily, Eric Schmidt won us over. He was very articulate, if not a little professorial. He seemed to listen to our concerns and communicate back to us in a way that conveyed understanding and serious intent. In short, we liked him and our confidence was bolstered by your results since IPO.

However, since you pushed Eric out so that you could retake the CEO title, we're a little freaked out.

All those early fears of ours about a bunch of kids running this company in some haphazard way came back to us. The day you made the announcement that you were taking over for Eric, you released a picture of you, Sergey and Eric sticking your heads out of a Prius that drives itself around the Google parking lot. Driverless cars? That's in the Google R&D budget?

More recently, we've read that you're investing in wind farms in Oregon. Hundreds of millions of dollars in wind farms. Your recent quarter's results showed operating expenses up 40% because you gave everybody one-time 10% pay hikes across the board.

In short, we're seeing lots of spending and it's not at all clear how this is going to benefit us -- the shareholders.

We know you call us Wall Street people and you look down on us. You think because we're not engineers or Rhodes Scholars that we're not as smart as you. You think we're slick guys in flashy suits who don't deserve what we're paid. You put us down in private -- until you need our money.

.......

[** This post is an excerpt of the full article, which is available on TheStreet.com by clicking here. Free Site.**]

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What Was Larry Page Thinking on Yesterday’s Earnings Call?

Larry Page's first earnings call last night was a disaster. If you want to be CEO, you have to lead.

Read my full post on Forbes.

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Wall Street Journal China Opinion: 佩奇能胜任谷歌掌门人吗？

My take on the challenges Larry Page faces as CEO of Google.

傑克森專欄

谷歌聯合創始人佩奇重新擔任谷歌CEO，他雖是技術天才，但沒有誰指導過他如何成為稱職的老板，他將不得不摸著石頭過河。很多人在這種情況下都會犯錯，不管他們有多優秀。

Read the entire column from Wall Street Journal China here.

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How Things Will Shake Out for the Rest of Google’s Management Team

There's been lots of speculation about who's in and who's out at Google under Larry Page. I weigh in with my views.

Read my full post at Forbes.

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Why Nikesh Arora Will Be Next to Go at Google

Now that Jonathan Rosenberg has departed Google, watch for Larry Page to change out another senior executive. Nikesh Arora is probably going to be next.

Read my full post at Forbes.

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A First Look at Larry Page's Google

By Eric Jackson
RealMoney Contributor
4/4/2011 1:00 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Eric Jackson

Today is Larry Page's first day at Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now) as CEO, post Eric Schmidt's "adult supervision."

In my opinion, Larry has always wanted this job. He never wanted to cede control when they hired Schmidt, but he felt forced into it by his venture-capitalist investors. After all, back in 2001, when Schmidt was hired, 28-year-olds (which Page was back then) just didn't tell Kleiner Perkins to buzz off and that they were going to keep manning the ship. It took Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg to break that mold.

The question you are bound to hear repeated today and for the next few months is whether Larry Page is the next Steve Jobs (of Apple(AAPL - commentary - Trade Now)) or Jerry Yang (of Yahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Trade Now)).

My guess is that Page will have a rough go as CEO. He is probably underestimating the human, emotional and leadership aspects of being a CEO. And let's face it, he hasn't had many role models who are great bosses. Larry has had Eric Schmidt -- who of course was always highly deferential toward Page and Sergey Brin - plus his doctoral advisor at Stanford and his parents. That's rather limited.

Page has never had the amazing experience of having a real jerk as a boss. The kind of guy who drives you absolutely nuts, who you bitch about at the water cooler with colleagues, and about whom you mutter to your spouse or girlfriend at night: "If I ever get to be CEO of this company, I'm going to do the exact opposite of that guy." Conversely, he's never had a boss who's challenged him, brought out the best in him and held him accountable when he was slacking off.

And don't tell me, "Oh, Google is a different kind of company. It's like a college campus. The management team even sits around on beanbags in an open-air room in the middle of the campus at the same time every week where people can drop by on their scooter and ask questions of the top leaders." I used to drink wine until 2 a.m. at college and debate Kierkegaard and Nietzsche too. There were some brilliant peers who intellectually duked it out with me. But do you know what all of them taught me about being a leader of people? Absolutely zilch.

...

[*** This post is an excerpt of the full article, available by clicking here to go to RealMoney.com. Note: subscription required. ***]

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Don’t Own Google for Next Six Months

Larry Page is taking over as CEO from Eric Schmidt on April 4th. He's likely to struggle in the first 6 months of the job as he learns the ropes of being the public face of Google.

Read my full post at Forbes.

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Who's Running Google's China Strategy?

By Eric Jackson
RealMoney Contributor
3/21/2011 4:00 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Eric Jackson

What is Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now) thinking in terms of its China strategy?

It was exactly a year ago, in March of 2010, that reports started circulating saying Google would leave China over hacker attacks and China's attempts to limit free speech on the Internet. A few weeks later, Google pulled its servers off the mainland and placed them in Hong Kong.

Looking at the 12 months since then, I would have to say that that decision was a complete failure.

Google's share of searches in China dropped to 27% last summer, down from 36% prior to the pull-out. The prime beneficiary has been China's top search engine, Baidu (BIDU - commentary -Trade Now), which saw its market share rise to 71% from 68% over the same period.

Google's share price has fallen 2% to $569 a share in that time. Meanwhile, Baidu's U.S.-traded shares have more than doubled, from just below $60 a share to $120.50 at the close Friday.

At the time of the pull-out from China, both of Google's co-founders, Sergey Brin and Larry Page, supported the move. Reading the psycho-social tea leaves, it appears that Brin was replaying the childhood trauma of his family fleeing the pre-Glasnost Soviet Union for America in pushing Google to leave China.

As Brin tells it in a recent interview at a TED conference, the decision to leave China was easy:

"We'll do as much as we can, but we don't want to run a service that's politically censored. We're not talking about porn and gambling, things like that, but really the political stuff. ... I want to find a way to really work within the Chinese system and provide more and better information. So, I think a lot of people think I'm naive, and that may well be true, but I wouldn't have started a search engine in 1998 if I wasn't naive in that way. ... Perhaps we won't succeed immediately, tomorrow or not, but we will in a year or two. ... Our focus has really been what's best for the Chinese people. It's not been about our particular revenue or profit or whatnot."

According to some reports, Google's decision to leave China led to some conflict between the co-founders and CEO Eric Schmidt. Though not the only reason, it is perhaps part of the reason why Larry Page decided to assert himself and take over the leadership of Google starting next month.

The recent action in Google's stock since that leadership announcement suggests that the market is still uneasy about Page's ascension and whether he will be a boost to the stock or an inexperienced and undisciplined leader.

...

[*** This post is an excerpt of the full article, available by clicking here to go to RealMoney.com. Note: subscription required. ***]

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Video: The Power Behind Google's Throne: Shona Brown

Contributor Eric Jackson says watch for Google (GOOG) SVP of Business Operations, Shona Brown, to wield some major influence now that Larry Page is taking over as CEO from Eric Schmidt. Brown co-authored the 1998 book "Competing on the Edge" about how the ideal tech companies need a balance of entrepreneurial zeal with proper organizational structure.

Wed 01/26/11 08:30 AM EST -- Eric Jackson

Stocks in this video: GOOG

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