How Facebook can Fail in China in 5 Easy Steps (if They Copy MySpace)

If Mark Zuckerberg wants to succeed in China, he needs to do exactly the opposite of what MySpace China did.

Read my full post at Forbes here.

Sphere: Related Content

What Does Tencent Want With MySpace?

By Eric Jackson, Senior Contributor04/13/11 - 06:11 AM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- There are new rumors out in the last week that Chinese Internet giant Tencent is talking to News Corp. (NWS_) about buying the once-hot social networking site MySpace.

MySpace is a shell of the company it once was. News Corp. bought it at what now seems like a bargain basement price of $500 million in 2005 and rode it up to many multiples of that in terms of valuation. However, it is likely News Corp. would get little to nothing now.

The company has fallen far behind Facebook; it is not even thought of as a distant competitor. It has cycled through many different leaders since the original founders Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson left the company. Whatever magic was once there has left.

TechCrunch recently reported that MySpace's unique visitors dropped 14% between January and February, increasing the pace at which the company is losing users.

So why would Tencent want MySpace? Interestingly, it is both Tencent and DeWolfe who are supposed to be close to bidding on the company.

Obviously, DeWolfe believes that he created the original magic of MySpace and he can bring it back. For Tencent, it's a little more complicated.

Tencent is now a $50 billion company; it is no shrinking violet. It is an Internet giant that trades places with Baidu(BIDU_) constantly for which is the largest Chinese Internet company.

Although Tencent isn't as well known in the U.S., it is actually a bigger social networking service than Facebook. Tencent has well more than 650 million users of its QQ service.

Back in China, Tencent is facing competition from Sina and its Weibo service, but Tencent is still almost 10 times the size in terms of market capitalization.

With buying MySpace, Tencent seems to be eyeing global growth. There have been other moves by the company that suggest this. Earlier this year it bought Riot Games, a Los Angeles-based online gaming company, to add to its mix of games offerings.

However, MySpace would be the biggest external move yet by the Chinese leader. Tencent likely sees a way of growing its QQ service internationally through a more recognizable brand. With DeWolfe's help, it also probably suspects it can rekindle some lost magic to the company.

.......

[** This post is an excerpt of the full article, which is available on TheStreet.com by clicking here. Free Site.**]

Sphere: Related Content

Yahoo! Buzz Will Lead to a Hangover

By Eric Jackson
RealMoney Contributor
10/14/2010 3:15 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Eric Jackson

Yahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Trade Now) once again found itself in the headlines on rumors of a possible buyout deal. The stock got as high as $18 this morning before the open on the hopes and dreams of long investors that a buyout of the company by AOL(AOL - commentary - Trade Now), News Corp.(NWS.a - commentary - Trade Now) and a combination of private equity firms such asBlackstone (BX - commentary - Trade Now) orSilver Lake was imminent.

This news was broken last night by Kara Swisher at The Wall Street Journal's "All Things Digital" and then followed up by aJournal article. Swisher made it clear in her reporting that any deal wasn't imminent.

This morning, one Yahoo! shareholder said thatMicrosoft (MSFT - commentary - Trade Now) was the best acquirer for Yahoo! and should step up to buy the company in order to keep it from falling into the hands of AOL or News Corp. This line of thought goes: 1.) the burgeoning search deal between Microsoft's "Bing" and Yahoo! is too strategic for Microsoft to let Yahoo! fall into unfriendly hands, and 2.) taking out Yahoo! at its current $22 billion market capitalization is pocket change for Microsoft.

The problem is that such a deal is going to be very complex to pull off and -- in my view -- unlikely to happen anytime soon. As such, I believe Yahoo!'s stock price is headed lower in the short term, rather than higher. Indeed, Yahoo!'s price action this morning suggests that most investors are staring at the possibility of a deal in the cold light of day.

Haven't Yahoo! investors been here before?

Here's the big problem with a Yahoo! buyout in the short term: There are too many moving parts. If you're expecting Yahoo!'s board, Alibaba.com, AOL, News Corp., Microsoft, and multiple private-equity bidders to get on the same page in the next month, I suggest you go organize world peace at the United Nations as your next task. Everyone has competing desires and price targets in mind.

The main driver of a Yahoo! shake-up is the company's stake in Chinese e-commerce site Alibaba. Most people know that Yahoo! did a deal to buy a 40% stake in Alibaba five years ago, probably Jerry Yang's biggest contribution to the company during his tenure. (It might go down as strategically even more important than his co-founding of the company. Think about that.) Alibaba has tremendous assets in China that are only going to become more valuable over time.

Most people also know that Yahoo! wants to wait to sell its Alibaba stake until after that company takes its remaining private assets public in an IPO. Alibaba, not surprisingly, would like to buy back Yahoo!'s stake pre-IPO.

What many people aren't aware of is that, under the terms of the 2005 investment, Yahoo!'s stake in Alibaba just increased to 39% from 35%. Alibaba CEO Jack Ma and his management team saw their stake drop to 32% from 36%. (Softbank Corp. retains its 29% stake.)

...

[*** This post is an excerpt of the full article, available by clicking here to go to RealMoney.com. Note: subscription required. ***]

Sphere: Related Content

Van Natta a Good Hire for News Corp's MySpace

The two co-founders of MySpace, Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson, have stepped aside or been pushed out by News Corp's (NWS) Rupert Murdoch and new digital boss Jonathan Miller.

Kara Swisher is reporting that former Facebook No. 2 Owen Van Natta will get the top job.
It's a good move for NWS. After buying MySpace for $500 million, and hearing cat-calls from critics, Murdoch's purchase was soon viewed as one of the biggest steals of the decade, given the social networking site's early explosive growth. Soon, MySpace signed a $900 million advertising deal with Google (GOOG), which essentially paid NWS back for the entire purchase and then some.

Yet, the GOOG deal is coming to a close, and there's little chance of renewal at similar terms. MySpace, despite huge traffic, has stalled in terms of its growth relative to Facebook and Twitter. It's no longer the shiny new toy it once was.


Van Natta is a well-respected exec who has worked closely with Jeff Bezos (his former boss) and Steve Ballmer (with whom he worked on partnership deals when he was the No. 2 at Facebook). On paper, he's the right guy with the right experience to lead MySpace now (and hopefully stick it to his former boss, Mark Zuckerberg).

MySpace may be a laggard in the social networking space, but its size and user base could still be turned around to the benefit of the NWS mothership again.

Originally published in RealMoney.com on 4/23/2009 7:53 AM EDT

Sphere: Related Content