Showing posts with label YOKU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label YOKU. Show all posts

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Youku Emerging a Goliath in China Internet

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- After the all-stock merger between Youku(YOKU_) andTudou(TUDO_) a couple of weeks ago, Youku's stock has receded from the $32 levels it hit the day of the deal announcement.


The stock is now back down at the $24 level -- and actually less than where it traded before the deal was publicized.


Read the full post in TheStreet

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Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Bloomberg Video: Ironfire's Jackson on Yahoo! Outlook

Here's my appearance from earlier today on Bloomberg TV's Money Moves with Trish Regan:



[Long YHOO, AAPL, and YOKU]

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Thursday, September 08, 2011

How to Invest in China


Stock quotes in this article: 

BIDU

GS

GS

YHOO

SINA

YOKU

PWRD

With CEO Allen Chan's departure from Sino-Forest earlier this week and the halt in trading of its stock, many investors are scratching their heads and wondering how or if they should invest in China.
I've even heard some commentators on TV say that since the Shanghai index has been flat or down in the last few years, this is proof that China is not a great place to invest. Yes, but most people invest in particular stocks. For example, i\If you bought into Baidu(BIDU) at its March 2009 levels and held on to it until today, you would be up 845%. That's not bad.
Of course, if you've invested in Sino-Forest or some of the other Chinese frauds, you have taken massive hits.
So how should you proceed? Here's my advice.
  1. Don't ever put your money in a Chinese Reverse-Takeover (RTO) again. There might be some good ones out there, but I can't name any. It's not worth it. There is way too much risk for the potential return.
  2. Don't think a Big Four auditor is a guarantee that everything at a Chinese company is kosher. Longtop Financial had one. So did China Agritech. Both are now trading on the pink sheets.
  3. Don't think a big name investment bank is a guarantee that a company is legit.Goldman Sachs (GS) took Longtop public a couple of years ago.
  4. All things being equal, it's safer to invest in the bigger-cap Internet companies in China -- and they are less likely to manipulate numbers compared to a manufacturing companies over there. The big dogs of the Chinese Internet are Tencent, Baidu, andAlibaba Group. Alibaba is still private but Yahoo! (YHOO) owns 40% of it, which is why I love Yahoo! Sina (SINA) is trying to break into this small group of big dogs and probably will in the next couple of years as its Weibo users grow.
  5. Beneath the "big dogs," there is much more risk, so pick category winners. Sina is the category winner in Weibo (Twitter). Youku (YOKU) is the category winner in online video. Taobao (part of Alibaba Group) is the category winner in e-commerce.
  6. Look for value plays. Online gaming in China is severely undervalued at the moment -- especially compared to the expected valuation that Zynga is going to get when it launches its IPO. My two favorites in that space are Perfect World (PWRD) and Giant Interactive (GA). I also think Mecox Lane (MCOX) is massively undervalued compared to Dangdang (DANG).
  7. There are no guarantees in China. The Chinese government could rewrite the rule book tomorrow. The whole Alipay incident with Yahoo! shows the risks of Chinese investing. Just as it's possible in the U.S., There could be a big accounting restatement in any of the "big dogs" at any time. However, I think there is still another 18-36 months of growth ahead for China before a major correction, so opportunity does beckon for the right companies.
At the time of publication, Jackson was long YHOO, SINA, PWRD, YOKU and MCOX, although positions can change at any time.
TAGS: 

CHINA

 | 

RISK

 | 

INTERNET

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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Rumor: Baidu Might Acquire IPO Cursed Online Video Site Tudou

Baidu may put Tudou out of its IPO misery, by acquiring the firm and rolling it into its Qiyi service.


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Monday, August 08, 2011

Time for Yahoo!’s Board to Play Offense: Sell 10% of Its Alibaba Stake Now

There is too much misinformation and conservatism circulating about the value of Yahoo!'s stake in Alibaba Group. It's time for Yahoo!'s board to set the record straight by selling a 10% piece of its stake.


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Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Fixing E-Commerce: China Watch

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Contributor Eric Jackson details his findings regarding Chinese e-commerce and what companies need to do to fix problems they currently face.Fri 07/08/11 05:15 AM EST -- Brittany Umar & Eric JacksonStocks in this video: FDX SINA AMZN NTES SOHU YOKU UPS



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Thursday, July 07, 2011

Things Never End Well, Otherwise They Would Never End

Why bubbles will continue to happen. And why the tech bubble in the US and China are destined to end badly.

Read the full post at Forbes here.

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Wednesday, July 06, 2011

My First-Hand Impressions of the Chinese Tech Sector

Here are my top 11 impressions of the Chinese tech sector from my recent trip there.

Read the full post here at Forbes.

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Friday, July 01, 2011

Wall Street Journal China Opinion: 谁将是通吃的赢家?

Who will be the winner of the "Winner-Take-All" strategy in China's Internet Space?

Read the full post in the WSJ China.

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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Don't Bail on China Tech Stocks

By Eric Jackson
RealMoney Contributor

6/28/2011 1:30 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Eric Jackson


The second quarter has not been kind to Chinese tech stocks. After flying high from January to April, big China techs such as Sina (SINA - commentary - Trade Now), Sohu (SOHU - commentary - Trade Now) andBaidu (BIDU - commentary - Trade Now) got walloped. Newbie China tech IPOs such as Youku (YOKU -commentary - Trade Now), Dangdang (DANG - commentary - Trade Now), and Qihoo 360 (QIHU -commentary - Trade Now) got hurt even more.

There were many reasons for the sharp pullback in these China tech stocks, some of which are listed below:

  • the general market pullback meant that these high-beta names pulled back even more;
  • more evidence of fraud in China stocks spreading from smaller reverse takeover companies to larger companies such asSino-Forest and Longtop Financial (LFT- commentary - Trade Now);
  • continued worries about a China Internet bubble and concerns that this was the beginning of the end; and
  • Jack Ma transferred out Alipay from Alibaba, sending Yahoo!'s (YHOO - commentary - Trade Now) shares down and worrying Americans that there is no rule of law in China.
In the midst of this wave of bad news and worry, I happened to be traveling through China, meeting with several tech companies. I was asked about if we were in a bubble more than anything else while I was there.

What I said then and what I still believe now is that this is not the beginning of the end but the end of the beginning. The Chinese Internet bubble is not bursting now, and I don't believe it will burst this year. I still think we have six to 36 months of good times ahead of us. It's hard to know more precisely than that when the party will end -- at least at this point.

Translated for investors, that means you shouldn't miss out on a second-half bounce-back for these stocks.

There is a range of quality out there, however, so you need to do a lot of research and due diligence before jumping in.

I recommend you stick with two of the biggest quality names: Baidu and Sina. They are solid companies with great management teams that will continue to be in-demand sites for a long time. Everywhere I went in China, I would hear people updating their Sina Weibo status on their iPhones. That is a growing monster service, right there.

Similar to Baidu and Sina, Hong Kong-listed Tencent should also do well in the second half of the year.


...

[*** This post is an excerpt of the full article, available by clicking here to go to RealMoney.com. Note: subscription required. ***]

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Tuesday, June 21, 2011

In New Crop of Chinese IPOs, There’s Not Another Baidu

Don't expect to find the next Baidu in the upcoming crop of Chinese IPOs. However, there are many niche players that will still be very profitable and successful.

Read the full post here at Forbes

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Monday, June 13, 2011

No Panic Here in China

By Eric Jackson
RealMoney Contributor

6/9/2011 10:00 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Eric Jackson


I have been in China for the past week, and have had a chance to visit a number of Chinese Internet firms -- including Tencent, Perfect World(PWRD - commentary - Trade Now), NetQin (NQ- commentary - Trade Now), NetEase (NTES -commentary - Trade Now), Baidu (BIDU -commentary - Trade Now) and AirMedia (AMCN -commentary - Trade Now).

It's been a down market for the last six trading days, and Chinese stocks have been hit hard, including the former leaders such as Sina (SINA -commentary - Trade Now), Sohu (SOHU -commentary - Trade Now) and Youku (YOKU -commentary - Trade Now).

The mood amongst most of these companies, however, remains upbeat. Most now point to the recent worries about Chinese frauds as the reason for the bigger pullback in the entire sector. Most say they have received no uptick in questions from their own investors about their auditors or their own corporate governance.

One thing I couldn't help but notice, as I drove around Beijing, was the large number of advertisements being bought in the offline world (as in buses, billboards or kiosks) for new private consumer-oriented e-commerce sites such asLashou.com (the No. 1 group-buying site in China), VANCL (a clothing retailer) and Tmall.com, which is part of Taobao (of whichYahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Trade Now) is a 40% owner).

Most of these companies expect to hold initial public offerings in the next six to 18 months. They have obviously been trying to drive traffic to their sites in the last few months in orLinkder to dress themselves up for investors -- and they don't mind spending money to do it.

Earlier this week I met with a company called Letao.com, which is also private but experiencing extraordinary growth selling shoes online. Some refer to it as the Zappos of China even though there are subtle differences that, in some ways, make the company a more attractive business. Letao is probably further away from an IPO than some of those other companies I've mentioned. Even though they have money to spend on advertising, it is trying to do this wisely, through search marketing and group buying primarily. Nevertheless, Letao is aware of the feeding frenzy for buying ads of all kinds in China now, and it sees how this is leading to higher ad prices each time they renew.

...

[*** This post is an excerpt of the full article, available by clicking here to go to RealMoney.com. Note: subscription required. ***]

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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

China Embraces Its Inner Tech Bubble

There will be a time when the China tech bubble pops - and it will be a severe reckoning - but that day is still likely at least two years away.

Read the full post here at Forbes.

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Wednesday, May 04, 2011

Most Competitive Spaces in Chinese Internet

By Eric Jackson05/04/11 - 07:00 AM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- China is a hot investment theme -- and, more specifically, China Internet. Stocks like Sina(SINA_), Baidu(BIDU_), Sohu(SOHU_) and Youku(YOKU_)have had great runs this year.

I often see investors talking about relative valuation of Chinese Internet stocks on Twitter: "I think Dangdang(DANG_) is poised to pop here to close the gap with Youku."

However, not all Chinese Internet stocks are created equal. Two sectors within the Chinese Internet space are particularly competitive: group buying and online video. I'm bearish on both sectors for the next year.

What's not to like?

The group buying space in China has existed for years.Groupon is certainly in the space. It recently bought a Chinese company called Groupon.cn that set up shop the moment it became clear that Groupon in Chicago was on to something. More interestingly, Groupon.cn was much more popular in China than Groupon had been.


It looks like Groupon made the acquisition to strengthen its position in China and look more put together for its likely end of year Nasdaq IPO. Groupon might end up being successful in China, with a lot of help from its partner there, Tencent. However, I wouldn't bet on it.

There are literally dozens of group-buying clones in China. Some more popular than Groupon, some less. The big daddy of them all is Taobao (ju.taobao.com) with more than 75 million unique visitors in January. Taobao is the mega-ecommerce site owned by Alibaba Groupprivately (which is 40% owned in turn by Yahoo! (YHOO_)). Taobao has never been shy to compete on price. Ask eBay(EBAY_) about their experience competing against Taobao -- they were driven out of the market.

Lashou.com is the next most popular company with 45 million unique visitors in January. Groupon.cn had 19 million visitors (which presumably Groupon Chicago will take over). Groupon itself (with its Gaopeng.com site which it had been using in China) didn't make the top 10 list of group buying sites in January in China.

There is money pouring into the sector. Lashou just received a Series C round of $110 million. This brings its total capital raised to date to $166 million.


.......

[** This post is an excerpt of the full article, which is available on TheStreet.com by clicking here. Free Site.**]

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Monday, May 02, 2011

The RenRen Question

By Eric Jackson
RealMoney Contributor

5/2/2011 1:00 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Eric Jackson

"Do You Like RenRen?"

I was asked that question more times last week than any other. It's actually surprising to me how many casual China investors are curious about this initial public offering, which is set to debut on U.S. exchanges Wednesday under the ticker "RENN."

The short answer is I don't really like the company, viewed by many as the "Facebook of China." But investors would be wise to get their hands on as many shares at the offer price as possible, because the stock will be hot out of the gate.

A couple of weeks ago, I gave my summary of the company's F-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. I said that the number of active users seemed to be far lower than what the company had suggested when it was still private and didn't have to worry about running afoul of pesky securities laws.

At the end of 2010, the company had only 24 million unique log-ons for the month of December, almost flat compared with December 2009. Revenues in the last three quarters have also been flat: $20 million, $22 million and $21 million, respectively. That's not a hockey stick.

I continue to hold rival Sina (SINA - commentary - Trade Now) long because I believe the growth of itsWeibo microblogging service continues at a pace we don't yet fully appreciate. Various reports I have heard from China suggest that many young users are dropping RenRen in favor of Weibo.

That said, the IPO process for RenRen has gone very well. Even before RenRen's U.S. road show, Asian demand had caused the IPO's bankers to raise the target offer price by $3 to a range of $12 to $14 per share. The company is now seeking to raise $743 million from the offering instead of about $500 million.

Maybe it's a Facebook thing. That company appears to be on track to do $2 billion in revenues this year and $4 billion next year. Facebook just released a report indicating their growth is faster than previously expected and on track for a successful IPO later this year. Of course, Facebook recently indicated that it is looking at entering the Chinese market through a joint venture with Chinese Internet search giant Baidu(BIDU - commentary - Trade Now).

Or maybe it's a China Internet thing. Youku (YOKU - commentary - Trade Now) is an online video site that did $58 million for the full-year of 2010, with a net loss of $31 million. Yet, the company has a $6.2 billion market capitalization.

...

[*** This post is an excerpt of the full article, available by clicking here to go to RealMoney.com. Note: subscription required. ***]

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Thursday, April 28, 2011

Baidu Keeps Rolling

By Eric Jackson
RealMoney Contributor

4/28/2011 12:15 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Eric Jackson

Last night's report from Baidu (BIDU - commentary - Trade Now) didn't disappoint the bulls. The company beat earnings expectations by $0.03 a share and beat top-line revenue estimates.

More important, Baidu raised its guidance for the second quarter above $500 million, on the high end of the range. This was beyond any prior high-end estimates for the second quarter. Quite simply, Baidu is continuing to perform with continued staggering growth.

The company's trailing 12 months of revenue prior to last night was $1 billion. Last night's quarter annualized is up to over $1.3 billion in revenue. Next quarter's guidance puts it up to $2 billion annualized. Its last quarter-on-quarter earnings growth compared with the prior year is 171%. That compares to the "mature" growth of Apple (AAPL - commentary - Trade Now) at 95% and Google (GOOG - commentary -Trade Now) of 20%.

But Baidu is still relatively small compared with Google. We're talking $1 billion or so in revenue a year vs. $30 billion. Can Baidu continue to justify a high multiple in the coming years? It now has almost one-third the market capitalization of Google.

To hear Robin Li, the founder and CEO of Baidu, talking about it on last night's call, Baidu still has a lot of growth areas ahead of it, including:

  • Further penetration within China, where only 30% of its population is connected to the Internet today.
  • Further increase in wealth and ad rates within China as the standard of living increases.
  • Growth in mobile use. Last night, Baidu management confirmed that 80% of the Android handsets shipping in China have Baidu as the default search engine. Ironically, Google's open platform has allowed handset manufacturers to insist that Baidu be the default search engine, as it is preferred in China.
  • Social. Robin Li made the point last night that Baidu has been competing against social platforms in China for many years, via Tencent's QQ service. Therefore, it has responded by trying to integrate social search into its search for a while. No one confuses Baidu with a social platform yet, although it has had its own version of Yahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Trade Now) Answers for years, and it has become very popular. Baidu can do a lot more to monetize search. And although the company didn't mention it all last night, there is the possibility of partnering with Facebook to bring the universal social service to China in the future.
  • Local. Today, this remains very under-monetized, according to Li's comments last night. In an increasingly mobile connected world, this search ability will become more important. A couple of days ago, the CEO of Sina (SINA - commentary - Trade Now), Charles Chao, said that over half of the users of his popular Weibo service connect via a mobile device.
  • Video. Baidu has 150 users for its Qiyi video service in less than a year. Youku (YOKU) has 230 million users. Baidu is rumored to be looking to spin-off Qiyi in 2012.
  • Robin Li discussed last night how apps are becoming more popular. Today, there are tens of thousands of apps, and the Chinese are showing a lot of interest in downloading them and experimenting with them. In a few years, however, he said, there will be hundreds of thousands and then millions of apps. At some point, users get overwhelmed with the choices. When that happens, they need to fall back to their familiar choices. Search, and Baidu, will be a key necessity for them. (Other big Chinese Internet companies such as Tencent, Taobao and Sina should also benefit from this trend.)

This morning, there are some increased price targets out from analysts. The stock is up.

Baidu is a solid Chinese company. It might not grow 143% in the next 12 months as it has in the last 12 months, but it will do very well.

At the time of publication, Jackson had long positions in BIDU, SINA, YHOO and AAPL.and short YOKU

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